While the majority of the headlines will be Drake Maye making his first career NFL start, my Texans vs. Patriots predictions focus on the next man up for Houston in the wake of Nico Collins’ IR stint.
Find out why my NFL picks have tabbed Stefon Diggs for a big receiving game on Sunday, October 13.
Texans vs Patriots prediction
My best betStefon Diggs Over 64.5 receiving yards (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Houston Texans wide receiver Stefon Diggs has cleared this benchmark in three straight games while piling up 21 receptions for 245 yards on 29 targets. His 25.2% target share per route run and 72.4% catch rate are excellent ratios during the run, and the New England Patriots aren’t an intimidating opponent.
The New England Patriots have surrendered a healthy 7.95 yards per target and 65.7% catch rate to opposing wide receivers while ranking 23rd in EPA allowed per dropback and 25th in dropback success rate. New England also ranks 28th in defensive DVOA and 23rd in defense-grade, per PFF.
Add that New England ranks 30th in pressure percentage and deals with multiple injuries on defense, and Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud is set up to pick the Patriots apart through the air.
The Texans are also without go-to receiver Nico Collins (hamstring) for at least the next four weeks, so Diggs’ role in the aerial attack isn’t in question. His PFF receiving grade has climbed in three consecutive games, and I think there’s potential for him to garner more downfield looks moving forward with Collins sidelined.
Diggs is sporting a career-low 6.6 aDoT through five weeks, and he’s posted a double-digit mark in each of the past five seasons. Collins has a 12.6 mark this year after going for 11.5 in 2023, so Diggs being targeted down the field more is definitely in the cards. Stroud’s 7.4 aDoT is well below last year’s 9.4 mark, too.
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Texans vs Patriots same-game parlay
Texans -7Stefon Diggs Over 64.5 receiving yardsC.J. Stroud 200+ passing yards
+310 at BetMGM
In addition to the highlighted defensive shortcoming of the Patriots, they’ve been just as bad on offense and are turning to rookie quarterback Drake Maye for his first career start. The Houston stop unit has also been a beast. The Texans sport the third-best defensive DVOA and rank fourth in pass-rush win rate while also allowing the fourth-lowest yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks.
It’s going to be a long day for New England on both sides of the ball.
The final leg of this same-game parlay capitalizes on the highlighted weakness of the Pats’ pass defense and the touch of positive regression ahead of Stroud’s aDoT. He’s trading with a 234.5 passing yards total at BetMGM, and I do worry that the Texans will turn to the ground after establishing a healthy lead.
Still, I expect him to be efficient and pile up yards while building a comfortable lead.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Texans vs Patriots odds
Texans vs Patriots live odds
Texans vs Patriots opening odds
- Spread: Houston -7 | New England +7
- Moneyline: Houston -300 | New England +240
- Over/Under: Over 38.5 | Under 38.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Texans vs Patriots spread and Over/Under analysis
- This spread hasn’t moved off of Houston -7 since opening at BetMGM.
- It’s notable that there have been shops testing New England +6.5, but the line never lasted. If anything, I expect this spread to move to Houston -7.5 before -6.5 ahead of Sunday’s game.
- This total has been bet down from an opening 39.5, with BetMGM hanging 38 as of Friday afternoon.
- I don’t suspect there will be a lot of support for the Over heading into kickoff, either. As noted, the Pats offense is up against it, and the Texans could be milking the clock late.
