There are Super Bowl bettors who get all their action in before kickoff, sit back, crack a beer (time the national anthem), and watch their pregame Super Bowl predictions unfold.
And then… there are those who live for the game within the Big Game.
Live betting on the Super Bowl is a massive market that grows every year, and sportsbooks will roll out their biggest menu yet of options for in-game NFL picks when the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers clash in Las Vegas on February 11.
We’re not just talking in-play spreads and totals either; live Super Bowl props (for players and teams), drive results, and lightning-fast micro-bets (such as wagering on the result of the next play) keep you constantly connected to the action on the field.
If you’re learning about live betting for the first time — or if you’re a seasoned in-running veteran — I break down the early potential scenarios for Sunday’s game and help you find the best ways to bet the Super Bowl odds.
Scenario: Slow start in first half
Best live bets
- McCaffrey/Pacheco Over rushing attempts
- Game total Under
- Purdy Under pass attempts
Big Game nerves can get the best of even the most talented teams, and we’ve seen previous Super Bowls open with an offensive whimper. Those quiet first quarters are often corrected with a bang in the final 45 minutes.
When it comes to Super Bowl LVIII, all the eyes are on the offenses, but we also have two of the best defenses in the NFL on the field.
Both the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers finished among the Top 10 in many advanced measurements, like DVOA and EPA per play, so it shouldn’t be too much of a shocker if those stop units set the tone in Sin City on Sunday.
You could also have two offenses looking to establish the run in the opening frame, with the Niners leaning into star RB Christian McCaffrey and the Chiefs trying to exploit a soft San Fran run stop with RB Isiah Pacheco. That means shorter gains with the clock ticking, setting the stage for Unders.
The 49ers have traditionally been fast starters, with Kyle Shanahan’s opening drive scripts helping produce 6.1 points per first quarter this season. San Francisco has also played Over the 1H total in 12 of its last 18 games.
Kansas City counters with one of the better 1Q defenses, giving up only 3.2 points in the first 15 minutes and an average of 10 points in the first half. If the Chiefs can turn away the Niners on those first few possessions, we could be in for a Super Bowl slog — especially with the way KC does business in the second half.
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Scenario: Chiefs come out swinging
Best live bets
- Purdy Over rushing yards + Over interceptions
- Kittle Over receptions
- Chiefs team total Over
A quick start for Kansas City would be just what the Chiefs want. Not only does that force the 49ers to lean more on Brock Purdy, but it also feeds into KC’s blitz-heavy playbook.
But not so fast.
San Francisco stumbled out of the blocks against Detroit in the NFC title game and despite a 24-7 hole, Shanahan stuck to his game plan with McCaffrey continuing to run the ball.
Sure, a few lucky plays shook out for San Francisco and the Niners were able to recover, but they didn’t push the panic button on the pass. That said, the Chiefs are a much better defense than the Lions.
Understanding how Kansas City establishes an early lead is pivotal for determining how to handicap the live odds.
If the Chiefs are getting what they want on the ground and Pacheco is breaking off big gains, then the Under is still in play and Patrick Mahomes’ props should also lean toward the Under in terms of attempts and yards. Receiving props will follow suit.
If Mahomes torches the 49ers’ coverage in the first couple of possessions and easily moves the chains, the Niners are in for a long night. Not only does an alternate spread on KC and the Over Team Total hold weight, but props that play into a pass-heavy playbook from San Francisco also have a pulse.
If Purdy is forced to pass more than Shanahan would like, the Chiefs will be bringing the heat. Kansas City finished second in sacks and boasts the second-highest pressure rate per dropback.
Purdy’s rushing Overs and George Kittle’s receptions are a good spot, with the QB putting in his biggest rushing efforts against aggressive defenses and the TE serving as his safety blanket under pressure. A play on Purdy’s interceptions Over could also be wise, considering the situation, as seven of his 12 INTs have come under duress.
Scenario: 49ers start strong
Best live bets
- McCaffrey Over rushing attempts
- Samuel Over rushing attempts
- Game total Under
- Mahomes Over interceptions
The Chiefs are the toughest defense the 49ers have faced in a while, so if San Francisco can strike early and often, it’ll very much dictate how the rest of the game plays out.
And the 49ers don’t want to get into a shootout with Kansas City.
The Niners run the slowest tempo in the NFL, with all the pre-snap motion chewing through the play clock. Should they hold a lead and pick up a solid yards-per-play rate, the 49ers will keep it short and safe with a lot of handoffs and short passes. In this scenario, markets on CMC’s rush attempts and Deebo Samuel’s work on the ground will light up.
That tempo would park Mahomes & Co. on the sideline and make them very pass-heavy when the Chiefs do get a possession. But rather than run to the Over, there could be value on the Under.
If the Chiefs have to abandon the run, they take away their greatest advantage over the Niners’ defense. San Francisco rarely surrenders home run plays, boasting the ninth shortest average depth of target allowed.
That defense would force Kansas City to slowly crawl down the field with the clock working against its efforts to catch up. Mahomes would try and crack that soft shell with a few shots downfield, which increases his chances of getting picked off.
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Scenario: Kansas City trails close and late
Best live bets
- Chiefs moneyline
- Game total Over
- Next Drive Result: Chiefs TD
If you recall last year’s Super Bowl, the Chiefs entered halftime trailing 24-14 to the Philadelphia Eagles, and Mahomes was limping to the locker room.
Despite all that, everyone and their dog started betting on Kansas City to win outright on the live markets. The Chiefs were close to +300 on the in-game moneyline at that point and went on to win the game 38-35 in a wild second half that featured 35 total points.
That Big Game comeback shouldn’t surprise anyone who’s watched Mahomes and the Chiefs over the past six seasons. He’s orchestrated 18 fourth-quarter comebacks and 21 game-winning drives in his career, including five in the playoffs. The “next drive” markets will offer some solid returns on “touchdown” as a result.
A classic KC comeback in Super Bowl LVIII isn’t cut and dry, however.
San Francisco enters Super Bowl LVIII as one of the top fourth-quarter defenses in the land, allowing a league-low 3.5 points in the final frame.
The decision to get involved with a trailing Kansas City team and its live odds should come down to your position for the Super Bowl overall. If you already have action on the 49ers to win or a futures ticket and enough to warrant a hedge with the live markets, then pull the trigger.
Scenario: San Francisco trails close and late
Best live bets
- Aiyuk Over receptions
Shanahan doesn’t have a great track record when trailing in the fourth quarter, owning a 1-30 SU mark in those situations for his career as a head coach.
That lone win came earlier in the postseason, with San Francisco rallying from a 21-14 4Q deficit versus Green Bay to win 24-21 in the Divisional Round. And, for what it’s worth, most of those losses were blowouts anyway.
The Niners don’t often see themselves in those spots, especially Purdy, who has only two fourth-quarter comebacks on his resume and four game-winning drives in his time under center for San Francisco — two of those coming in this year’s playoff run.
However, Purdy does rate out as the best QB in the fourth quarter in terms of advanced metrics like EPA per dropback and CPOE. Plus, while his postseason starts have started bumpy, he’s been solid in the second halves.
Purdy’s target of choice in the crunch has been WR Brandon Aiyuk, who leads the 49ers with 16 receptions and 333 yards in fourth quarters (eighth most in the NFL), so his live prop markets are worth a look if they’re still open for action at this point.
A 49ers’ comeback will be challenging against this Kansas City defense, which tightens its belt in the second and even more so in the final quarter.
The Chiefs sit No. 6 in 4Q EPA per play allowed and give up an average of only 3.7 4Q points per game. In fact, KC has allowed only one field goal (to Baltimore) in the fourth quarter of its three playoff games.
Again, jumping into the live moneyline market on a trailing Niners squad should depend on your potential profits for the game. If you went heavy on the Chiefs to win or hold a futures ticket, then hedge if the math makes sense.
Personally, I’m more comfortable in going live ML with a trailing Kansas City side than I am betting on a San Francisco comeback win.
